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Recent Newsletter / Bulletin Samples:
Sent: June 24, 2008 9:18am est
Focus:
ROYL relentless....will be
eyeballing gap filling back under 12....
IDEV renewed upside
yesterday........the rebounding bias the last week continues to attract
Selloffs getting a bit
overdone yesterday / weeklong? Eyeball RFMD at
3.
Was just a matter of time
before KRY entered back into discussions.....recall the last time this
occured it ran up to 1.20.......will be monitoring early going support
closely.........
Movers:
ROYL up 1.03 in
12 range........up 1.13......up .88
PDO up 1.11 in 39 range up 1.40......up 1.69....breaking 40....... recall
best % gainer in 2008 comments last week.
LRCX up 1.37
ASML up 1.29 in
25 range...ASML
upgraded to buy at Goldman Sachsat MarketWatch(Tue 3:13am)
10-20
SYMC flexing..
SFSF sturring.........
NCOC flexing
in10 range.........ongoing strength......recent climb from 7 range...
5-10
CPSL flexing..........recall addition to Russell
2-3
1-2
KRY up .34 at 1
Crystallex
and Ministry of Environment Begin Discussions; National Assembly
Committee Supports Las CristinasMarketwire(Tue 8:07am)
under1
pennies:
UTUI carryover
focus.......read yesterday's news.
Best strength from prior
mentions:
ROYL climbed back into 11
range.........very nice renewed upside action here.....this is a blog
favorite........very resillient
Monday, June 23, 2008Royale Energy (ROYL) Strikes Oil, Stock Set To Go Parabolic...
As we've mentioned many times over the past
several weeks, we have been aggressive buyers of ROYL on every dip,
and with the company putting out an operational update minutes ago
we couldn't be more excited about the prospects of the company, and
feel very strongly that the stock is setting up for a parabolic move
to the upside here a la PDO as in addition to extremely bullish
findings of natural gas in their Uintah Basin acreage, they have
also discovered huge pools of oil.
Here are some excerpts specifically regarding the addition of oil to Royale's growing asset base: "In addition, the Company believes the shallow Castlegate formation that is part of the Mesa Verde group of sands is shown on the logs to be present in two of the Company’s wells and covers a large area. This formation has shown both natural gas in the most updip location, as well as tar in the structurally lower position. If productive, this zone could result in production of both natural gas and oil from an area of almost three miles of structural dip." "In California’s San Joaquin Basin, Kern County, Royale intends to drill an additional penetration of the Monterey oil shale. After analyzing the results of its last completion (Weber 27x-27) the Company will follow completion procedures that were developed in its latest test that resulted in the Monterey formation free flowing to the surface without pumping. Royale believes this to be extremely significant considering all of the Company’s previous perforations of the Monterey shale never achieved this. In addition, the oil cut has increased substantially over previous tests." We did not expect these new oil finds and view this as an extremely bullish finding as we expect them to use a parallel strategy to their natural gas production of selling the Oil on a completely unhedged basis. In addition, the CEO stated that they are expecting to return back to profitability this quarter and are looking for continued profitability for the foreseeable future, which is also excellent news. We are upping our initial target from the $15-20 range to $20-25 based on our belief that Royale's current $80M market cap does not accurately reflect the company's growing asset base and 100% unhedged natural gas production. As such we continue to hold ROYL as our top pick in the energy space.
20+
PDO up another 7 to 37
yesterday we failed to note.
under 2mil float........volatility focus
SYMW
volume increase on Monday. Reached $0.068 yesterday. Watch for
continuation of uptrend today and trades above $0.08.
TKO be ready- Goingin6 has taken SYNM TGC HYGS SATC QTWW BCON CPST all + 100% and TKO once it holds a bottom of channel .52 and breaks over .61 I think you will see what this guy can do, and has done in the 5 yrs I have traded with him.
ongoing60 outside favorite........heavy
following......
VNDA alert at 4.60
Level 2 trade help When using L2 in deciding where to enter/exit a stock, there are things to consider:
June 22, 2008 9:12am est
Focus:
Oil futures climbing from up
2 to up nearly 4 the last hr a negative into the open........
Take advantage of the sharp
pullback in ROYL?.........ought to give it some
consideration...........quite impressed with the outside comments we
forwarded yesterday, and other discussions we're coming across here.....nostrodamus:
Natural gas continues to be our favorite sector in the market right as
we believe the $15-17 level in spot prices is inevitable, and we
therefore continue to be huge holders of ROYL as the company remains
completely unhedged and continues to increase natural gas production
Like that motley fool
article on QTWW below......recall support near 2.40 related comments on
it yesterday...
gb holding SATC having a
recent pattern of intial selloffs and getting bought into nicely into
the day........consider the pattern
TGC up and comer focus in
1-2 range........recall explosion to the upside related comments......up
.11 in 1.76...up .15...........monitor the action a bit closer then most
in this price range.........
HBAN is best pre mkt
strength...
Serious swings
yesterday.......PDO comes to mind the quickest..........expect pivoting
back over 30........
That was some pretty good
news yesterday with ESLR..........noticing the the stock climb back from
down .30 to near it's flatline in the pre mkt..........now has two huge
deals within the last month........may still have legs into the
morning........to12.50
Best strength from prior
mentions:
CPST climbing back to 4.08
ESLR ended up 2 and change
in 12 range.........down.30.......down .18......
Worst:
ROYL fell back to lower 9
range......recall runup to 11 range.....continues to provide extreme
upside volatility........
EXLS up 1.23.....pe 15 EXL
Displays Insurance Leadership and Announces Multiple New Wins and Client
ExpansionsPR Newswire(Thu 9:44am)
20+
IOC down 8.64......down
9.02...
PDO up 2.39 in 29
range.......up 3.37........recall best 2008 chart / % gain (over
800%).......notice that late day selloff from 33 to 25.....
CSIQ up .56 in 47
range........recall recent runup from 37 to 52.........
SanDisk
Falls In Pre-Market On Downgrade
6/20/2008 8:54 AM ET
10-20
ROYL renewed upside
focus......up .58 at10
SYMX up .51 InPlay:
Synthesis Energy Systems announces pricing of public offering of 10 mln
shares at $9.25Briefing.com(Fri 7:01am)
5-10
HBAN up .43.........up
.88.....Huntington
Bancshares Incorporated Announces 2008 Second Quarter Net Charge-Off and
Loan Loss Provision Expectations and Confirms Franklin Credit Management
Corporation Relationship Continues to Perform to ExpectationsPR
Newswire(Thu 4:42pm)
3-5
2-3
1-2
IDEV dime or so pullback
yesterday, but otherwise weeklong rebounding bias........
BeaconEquity.com
Issues Trade Alerts on Top Performing Chinese Stocks TYM and CYXN
CYXN pe:
under 1
recall CNXT bumping into .60
range yesterday.........
DCR two week slide from 1.45
to .13,however staged a sharp rebound back to .20 yesterday......extreme
volatility focus.
Pennies:
outside input:
the tiger
PLTG bullish chart. .June
19 PLTG Platina
Energy Group Connects More Wells to Pipeline in Kentucky
ENT bullish candlestick
chart
listened to technical
analysis on all three stocks last night......PLTG saw a runup from .06
to .18 earlier in month.......check into
-----
Thursday
June 19, 2008
5 Top PowerRatings Stocks Under $15: OPTM, VVUS, AVAN, TWP, VCI Today's top 5 Short Term PowerRatings Stocks includes Avant Immunotherapeutics whose PowerRating jumped from 3 to 9 in one week without a massive sell-off preceding it's rating change. Optium Corporation (OPTM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 9. RSI(2): 3.62 9-rated Optium Corporation has been trending lower since June 6th, when the stock failed to follow-through to the upside after rallying from a minor, short term pullback.
Interestingly, during even that minor pullback, the Short Term PowerRatings for OPTM rallied the entire way from 1 to 10 in about five days. The current pullback has seen the stock's PowerRating climb from a recent low of 5 to a high of 9 - once again signaling opportunity in this very oversold, high PowerRating stock. Valassis Communications (VCI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 9. RSI(2): 15.96 Shares of Valassis Communications finally broke down from a sideways consolidation that lasted about a month from early May to early June.
And while there were a number of instances in which VCI earned a high Short Term PowerRating of 9 or even 10 during that consolidation, it is the stock's current pullback that is more likely to create significant opportunities for traders. Off more than 18% as the stock nears its 200-day moving average, VCI is still not as oversold as the other stocks in today's report. Traders looking to advantage of this pullback may want to keep VCI on a watchlist to see if the stock comes in further first. 7 Stocks Defying the Doubters2 Recommendations Successful investing requires you to think independently and stick to your convictions. That's hard enough with stocks that are generally popular -- after all, in the stock market, there's a seller for every buyer. But it gets even tougher with stocks that can't seem to find good press or bullish investors anywhere. Of course, defying popular opinion has led many contrarian investors to great returns. In that spirit, I've headed to Motley Fool CAPS to dig up some unloved stocks that have delivered big gains to shareholders over the past month. Our community of investors has put each of these companies on the bottom two rungs of the CAPS rating scale:
Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of June 18. Now, given CAPS' knack for accurately gauging winners and losers over the first year we have data, I'm not recommending that you run out and buy these stocks! An index set up to short CAPS' least-liked stocks has outperformed more than 98% of all other CAPS players. That said, CAPS players have been overly negative on some high-performing stocks. Are any of the stocks in the table above the same sort of unloved winners? The naysayers CAPS player itsacointoss also pointed out that despite the lackluster financial performance of the company, management hasn't been shy about collecting big paychecks:
To put some numbers to the sentiment, in 2007, though Quantum Fuel posted massive losses, four executives received total compensation of more than $1 million. Considering the size of the company, that's quite a payday. Naysaying the naysayers Why the big run? There are a number of reasons. For one, investors are likely excited by the fact that the company is working on alternative energy solutions at a time when oil prices are breaking records day after day. Quantum has also gotten a boost from some new contracts, including a $17 million deal that its solar subsidiary Asola announced in late May. And topping it all off, there have been rumors that the company could be a takeover target for one of the large automotive players. Crazy? Maybe not. Given the state of the auto industry, it may be unlikely, but the majority of Quantum's revenue comes from General Motors (NYSE: GM), so an acquisition wouldn't be totally out of the blue. On CAPS, the stock recently got a big upgrade from rock-bottom one-star status to two stars. CAPS players clearly appreciate the exciting industry that Quantum is involved in and see big potential. One CAPS player, Ladybuggy, gave the stock a thumbs-up recently and said:
--------------- June 19, 2008 12:07pm est midday
ESLR likely to break 12 near
term........
RFMD turnaround
progressing some........recall oversold related comments
yesterday.........debate entry under 3.50, given the pullback from
3.55.....
CPST building some off
of this mornings consolidation pattern.......remains in play.....
recall the good news on ABPI
last week that sparked a runup to 1.40.....staging a turnaround off of
near 1.10.......recall us mentioning they have 5 or so drugs in their
pipeline........recall debacle from 3 a couple months ago on drug delay
news.......this stock is pretty attractive to us at present levels from
all the research we've performed on them this year.
ROYL approaching 15% pullback
from intraday highs....... psychological support focus at 10......
CPSL extending bias
following some early going consolidation near it's flatline........
Best strength from prior
mentions:
ESLR lifting nicely the last
hr
solid upping following
a mid morning pullback to 11......
Worst:
ROYL topping out at
11.59............
IDEV pulling back, but
did stage a sharp bounce off of 1.60........
20+
PDO hit 35 mid morning.....plenty of
volatility...consider dips back around 32..........up 804% this
year.......best ytd performer
10-20
Honing in on XIDE pickup....5day upping from
16.50.....reminder on a very strong earning report that sparked a
runup to near 20 a couple-three weeks back.........Exide Technologies
(Exide) is a provider of stored electrical energy solutions. The
Company is also a manufacturer of lead acid batteries, which are used
in transportation, motive power, network power and military
applications
ytd 120% performance
SWKS ongoing strength
focus...intermediate term chart favorite....predictable
trending.........pointing back to 11 following recent pullback
from11.24..........
3-5
CPST pointing back
above 4 after mid morning support at 3.85.............
SATC not extending like we had hoped after
trading at 3.32 in the pre mkt, however today's pattern resembles
yesterday's after supporting 3.07 / higher low mid morning.
has been quick to rebound.......debate it around 3.10....
2-3
QTWW two day basing
around 2.40 following the runup from 2.15 to 2.60......still like for
trending to 3 into next week........
1-2
BCON holding onto slight
upside near 2
Recall citing ATSG as a
rebound candidate the last two weeks following debacle..........inching
bias from.95 continues.
AVNX backing off from near 1.20 this
week.......basing focus around 1.08.........
under 1
In hindsight, we sold
HYGS too early........showing an intraday high of 1.11.......
--------
Outside noteworthy excerpt: When to Sell: Five Rules of ThumbA common complaint about investment writers is that we are always willing to tell you the next stock to buy, but we don't always get around to telling you when to sell. I'm as guilty of this as most: generally, I write about the stocks I'm interested in... which are the ones I'm buying, not selling. And, although I write the occasional negative article (Petrosun Drilling most recently, but also US Sustainable Energy and Global Resource Corporation), these were more stocks to avoid, rather than stocks which had seen their run. This is unlikely to change. For a start, I'm not selling many alternative energy stocks... I'm using the downturn to add to my holdings, and intend to continue doing so even if the downturn becomes a full-blown bear market, as it well may. What I am selling are stocks I bought in 2001-2004, mostly precious metals mining stocks, and I have not researched any of them for 3 years. I don't have a lot to say about them, nor would an article fit the Alternative Energy Stocks theme. In the absence of specific "sell" articles, I thought I'd outline a few rules of thumb I use to know when to sell. Rule #1: Rebalancing I have target percentages for both stocks and asset classes, above which I will sell part of my holdings. For the mining stocks mentioned above, whenever they appreciate to more than 11% of my total portfolio, I sell some to bring the percentage back down. For individual stocks, the target depends on how risky I believe the stock is. For large, stable companies this is around 3-5% of my portfolio each, while for more speculative companies, this is less than 1% of my portfolio for any single stock. Rule #2: Sell Half on a Double For particularly speculative companies, especially one with negative earnings, I'll typically sell half of my holdings if the stock doubles from where I bought it. This rule served me well last year with Composite Technology Corporation (CPTC), allowing me to take some gains, but then buy more recently when the stock fell back. I failed to follow this rule with Electro Energy (EEEI) this January, and optimistically put in an order to sell 40% of my holdings at 2.5 times my purchase price ($1.30), but the stock peaked in intraday trading at almost exactly twice my purchase ($1.05.) Both these tocks have since fallen back, but I was able to buy more of CPTC with part of the gains from my sale, while I have my original position in EEEI. Rule #3: Capture Short Term Losses Come tax time, I want all my capital gains to be long term ones, taxed at only 15%. To that end, if I'm sitting on a good sized loss in a stock I bought 9-11 months earlier, I seriously consider selling so that I can use the loss to offset short term capital gains in the coming year. If I'm very bullish about the stock, I will usually buy more, wait a month to avoid a wash sale, and sell the original position. If I'm just neutral on the stock, I sell without buying more first. Rule #4: Get Paid for Your Decisions If I plan to sell some of my holdings because of one of the above rules, I often do so using covered calls. For instance, if 4% of my portfolio is currently General Electric (GE) at $37, it would be over 5% if the stock goes to $50, and I would want to sell some because of Rule #1. I can currently sell GE Jan 2010 $50 Calls for around $1. If I sell calls covering half of my position, I make an immediate 1.3% (=1/37 x 1/2) gain on my holdings, and only if the stock goes up to $50 before January 2010 do I have to sell half my holdings... something would do anyway because of Rule #1. This strategy is very similar to how I often buy stocks, using cash covered puts. Rule #5: If You Need the Money If you need the money for something else, it's quite likely that you will be forced to sell something at precisely the wrong time. Because of that, I always try to keep enough cash around to cover several months of normal or anticipated expenses, and I never buy stocks on margin (because of margin calls). If I need small amounts of cash anyway, I often sell covered calls or cash covered puts, as described in rule #4. Try to plan ahead as far as possible in advance, and keep enough cash that you never have to sell on short notice.. Conclusion I often think that knowing when to buy and sell is often more important than knowing what to buy and sell. All these rules are simple, but it's easy to lose track of them chasing the next hot stock tip. These rules are especially valuable in the volatile world of alternative energy stocks, as the examples in Rule #2 show. If you normally come to this blog for stock tips, remember that knowing when as what to sell is at least as important as knowing when and what to buy.
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